Follow the Chain
1
February 28, 2026 — US and Israel strike Iran
Operation Epic Fury begins. Iranian military, nuclear sites, and leadership are targeted. The conflict triggers Iranian retaliatory strikes across the Gulf region.
2
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Iranian retaliatory strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and the near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz disrupts approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. Crude oil rises above $100 per barrel almost immediately, eventually exceeding $110.
3
Global oil shortage — buyers need alternative supply
With Gulf supply disrupted, energy-importing countries scramble for alternative sources. Russia — which has been under US sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine — is among the few major producers capable of filling the gap. Russian oil becomes more valuable and more in demand.
4
Trump administration issues 30-day Russia oil sanctions waiver
The US Treasury issued a 30-day waiver on sanctions imposed on Russian energy sales over Moscow’s ongoing full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The waiver applied to Russian oil that was already loaded onto tankers. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called it a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” to “promote stability in global energy markets.” Some analysts and Russia disagreed with the characterization of its financial impact.
5
Russia’s oil exports increase as Iran’s decrease
CBS News reported that Russia is benefitting financially from the Iran war, as Tehran’s retaliatory strikes paralyze crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and send global energy prices skyward. The US Treasury’s waiver provided a direct mechanism for that benefit to flow. The US also lifted some sanctions on Russian crude to make it easier for those barrels to reach market, with a separate lifting lasting until April 19, 2026.
What this means in plain English
The United States is simultaneously at war with Iran — citing Iranian threats as the justification — while issuing waivers that allow Russia, which invaded Ukraine and is subject to US sanctions, to profit from the energy chaos that war created. The country that benefits most from disrupted Middle Eastern oil supply is Russia.The administration’s sanctions waiver during the Iran war directly enabled that benefit to flow. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s characterization that the waiver would not “provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government” was disputed by analysts and by Russia itself.
“Russia is benefitting financially from the war with Iran, as Tehran’s retaliatory strikes paralyze crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and send global energy prices skyward.”
CBS News live updates, March 2026
The Broader Energy Disruption
The near-total halt of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused cascading effects beyond oil. The strait is also a major route for liquefied natural gas. The 2026 Iran War Wikipedia article documents that the conflict has created a significant disruption in the global supply of sulfur, with Gulf countries accounting for roughly 45% of global supply. This is projected to spike fertilizer costs, metal leaching in the copper industry, and sulfuric acid prices globally.
European benchmark gas prices rose over 50% following Iranian drone strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility. The European Commission convened an Energy Task Force. The UK government warned of potential household energy bill increases. In Bangladesh, the war created a severe fuel crisis prompting rationing.
Who did not feel it the same way: Russia. With its own oil exports now flowing more freely under US sanctions relief, with global prices elevated, and with no assets at risk in the conflict, Russia’s position in the global energy market improved directly as a result of a war the United States initiated.
Sources: CBS News live updates March 2026 · Wikipedia Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran War · NPR March 20 2026 · Euronews March 3 2026 · US Treasury press release. Updated March 30 2026.