On March 22, 2026, traders placed roughly $580 million in bets on falling oil pricesin a single minute — 15 minutes before Trump posted on Truth Social that he was pausing planned strikes on Iranian power plants and claimed there had been “productive conversations” with Tehran. That post immediately sent oil sharply lower. A Nobel Prize-winning economist called it treason. No one has been charged.
Oil futures markets are among the most liquid in the world. Traders can buy or sell standardized contracts for future delivery of crude oil at a fixed price. Each contract represents 1,000 barrels. A move of $10 per barrel translates into $10,000 per contract. These markets are highly leveraged — large institutions can control enormous positions with relatively modest capital outlays.
The Strait of Hormuz closure has been the most consequential energy event since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait. The near-total halt of tanker traffic since February 28, 2026 has sent crude oil prices above $110 per barrel — up roughly 45% from approximately $67 before the first strikes.
Companies that benefited directly from high oil prices: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, Cheniere Energy (the largest US LNG exporter), Venture Global, and Australia’s Woodside Energy all saw gains. European benchmark gas prices rose over 50% following Iranian drone strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility.
Who paid: American drivers. US gasoline prices have risen sharply since February 28. Airlines, consumer discretionary companies, and any fuel-intensive industry has faced higher costs. The International Energy Agency estimated that in 2024, 84% of oil going through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets — meaning the US is being harmed by a price shock its own military action helped create.